What Are The Odds?
Playing College Soccer
So you want to play NCAA D1 Soccer? Most players and parents don’t know the actual statistics of the probability of that to occur. My first Soccer Recruit Nation article will cover the common goal of many playing NCAA D1 Soccer and how that looks by the numbers. We will also briefly discuss those odds and finding success in the recruiting process.
College soccer for high school players is very competitive, and it isn’t easy to make it to the NCAA Division 1 level. In the 2022-2023 school year, 454,000 boys played high school soccer. Out of those, 36,500 (8%) got the chance to play college soccer. Yet only 4,226 of boys (0.9%) made it to the often sought-after NCAA Division 1.
For the girls, 390,000 played high school soccer, with 41,200 (10.6%) playing next-level college soccer. Out of those, only 9,486 (2.4%) played in the NCAA Division 1. These numbers show how tough it is to compete for college soccer spots at any level, and especially how unique of a talent a player has to be to play at the Division 1 level; especially males.
Are You “D1 or Bust”? If So, You Are Making a Mistake!
“ I can’t believe he is going to a D3 school. He is wasting his talent in my opinion”, I overheard two soccer parents discussing one of their son’s teammates’ decision to commit to an excellent NCAA D3 university. “They don’t even offer athletic scholarships at the D3 level. How does that make sense?” they continued to question the decision like it was theirs to make. I have heard this same type of conversation too many times to count over the last several years while sitting on the sidelines at both Club and High School soccer matches. I think parents and sometimes players tend to have what is called a “D1 or Bust” mentality. After all, most of us are programmed to want to participate at the highest level in almost everything we do. As the saying goes, you have to “run with the big dogs, or stay on the porch”. But with college soccer, that particular saying couldn’t be further from the truth. In my experience, the people making comments similar to this don’t truly understand the process or the many benefits of committing to other levels of collegiate soccer. Everyone has their path, and we should encourage each other to find and follow it to recruit success.
Having been in and around college soccer, and researching and studying the process and landscape, I can tell you, that taking the “D1 or Bust” approach to the recruiting process is the most common mistake made by players and parents. As the numbers indicated earlier, becoming a D1 college soccer player only happens for roughly 13,712 of the nearly 844,432 on high school rosters — that is about 2%. I am not implying it is impossible to get recruited to play D1 soccer, but what I am saying is that often players and parents put far too much emphasis on only focusing on the D1 path. That focus sometimes causes them to miss out on opportunities to become a student-athlete at other levels. To be honest, most players who have the desire to play D1 soccer are not talented enough to do so. The desire to play at the highest level frequently clouds the view of being a realist.
Many soccer athletes who aspire to play at the D1 level, should consider that the many D2, D3, and NAIA programs can regularly compete well against, and sometimes defeat a D1 program. There are even many Junior Colleges that can “hang” with middle to lower-ranked D1 programs. My point is, regardless of what division you get recruited to play, you are a baller. The top-ranked D1 programs and P5 programs play at a level out of this stratosphere, but typically only recruit from a small, select, insanely talented pool of players. You might be fortunate enough to be on such a roster, but how much do you think you will play those first couple of seasons? Ever been to a D2, D3, NAIA, or JUCO match in person? The match speed, decision-making, and the strength of players are all extremely noticeable. All the players on the pitch are there for the same reason; they can ball out. I would encourage you to look at some statistics and rosters of upper 100-ranked D1 programs. Typically, you won’t find many freshmen or sophomores that find much playing time. Now this varies from year to year, and season to season, but a vast majority of upperclassmen see most of the minutes in a season. Have you thought about that? How would you react if put in that situation?
The Truth About The Transfer Portal
Chances are, like most soccer student-athletes, you are a talented player on the pitch. You probably played nearly every minute of high school varsity soccer, and in club soccer as well. How will you react when your name is not announced in the starting eleven or even called out to be a sub? Players often struggle with this because they have never had to experience being on the sidelines cheering for teammates. Some feel disappointed, while others get angry and start to feel like they are losing passion for the game. Don’t believe me? The College Transfer Portal is showing us that players are deciding to play D1 soccer, only to regret it a season or two later, and request a transfer. Sure, not all transfers fall into this category, but this is the main reason we are seeing the portal numbers increase every season.
The College Transfer Portal is not a comfortable place to be. Not everyone who enters the portal will emerge the following season on a college roster at any level. In 2021, only 55% of those in the recruiting portal found their way back onto a new college roster. Sadly, this means that 45% of those in the portal might never see the field again. Sure, some of those may have willingly decided to perhaps focus on academics; however, many fell victim to the cruel numbers game that is the Transfer Portal. I understand it may be tempting to enter the portal because the grass looks greener on the other side, but entering it is a very dangerous decision. Be certain that is what you want to do before telling your coaching staff because once they are aware, you wish to transfer, there is no coming back to the program.
College Soccer Recruiting Advice
The best piece of advice that I can offer players and parents navigating their recruiting process is to keep ALL your options open. That means being receptive to looking at playing and studying at all universities from all levels. Casting a large net allows one to find the best possible college environment for each unique student-athlete. For example, my daughter grew up in a small town, with a small school district, and wanted to find a smaller, more intimate campus compared to a large D1 or D2 setting. She also placed a high value on student life events, the ability to participate in various clubs, dorm room options, and cafeteria food quality and options as well. Academics and striking the right balance with athletics was also important. After all, you are a student first and an athlete second, so make your studies the main priority. Finally, the soccer piece was also a factor in her decision on where to attend. She made sure she got to know the coaching staff. She made campus visits, watched a match, met the team, and hung out with several of the girls. Most importantly, she asked plenty of questions. It is okay to ask the coaching staff how they feel you fit into their plans and what the typical day looks like (both in season and off). You must understand the expectations they have of their players, and you won’t know if you don’t ask. She also asked the girls questions about the team, coaches, and the campus.
She researched many colleges and universities using the same methodology before ultimately deciding on a college. Her first season had ups and downs, but that is to be expected when you are living away from home for the first time. In her second season, it is all coming together both academically and athletically. She played solid minutes as a CB and was named to the Dean’s List this semester. She is enjoying the student life events and enjoys being around her friends and teammates. To top it all off, the team sound themselves making the conference tourney for the first time in several years. She is finding happiness and success at every turn.
In closing, I encourage players to take a similar path when evaluating their recruiting pathway. Remember, regardless of the level you play college at, you are one of the few to achieve the remarkable goal of doing so. The odds were against you, but you overcame and showed resilience to achieve the level that, so many never fail to achieve. Cast a wide net! The bigger the net, the better catch of opportunities you can evaluate. It is not uncommon at all to have your recruiting pathway change directions along the way. It is also critical to remember this is YOUR journey, and you should not compare it to the journey of others. Our competitive juices get flowing, and we think “We can’t be outdone by the Jones Family. We have you go D1 like little Jimmy”. Not so fast! Jimmy’s path is different from yours, and there is a chance little Jimmy might be in the transfer portal next season because he never left the bench. It is important to have a high level of self-awareness when deciding where you're committing to. Don’t decide based on the fancy Nike team gear, or the name on all the sweatshirts at the campus store. A College Coach told me recently, “The best piece of advice I can give a player working through recruitment is, go where it feels like home, and you are wanted as a player and student”. I don’t know if I have heard a better piece of advice when deciding on where you should attend. It doesn’t matter what division it is, once you find the right “fit”, that is where you need to attend.
Until next week - Be Real, Stay Humble & Always Be Kind!
Scott Gabbard | Soccer Recruit Nation
#SoccerNation — Please comment with some tips that you have used or are currently using to help you through your recruiting path. Also… comment below with the topics you want to see covered in an upcoming blog post!
